Probability of draw in football

Football teams are not reason to settle for a draw. All professional leagues award three points for a win and just one for a draw. However, this does not stop draws from being constant. How likely a draw is, modify greatly between leagues.

While draws are more common in lower leagues, they are less constant in higher leagues. The percentages of draws between the EPL and League 1, Serie A and Serie B, and Bundesliga and Bundesliga 2, shown below. The league with the most draws in 2019–2020 was the Uruguay Primera, with a huge draw percentage of 54.17%.

TOURNAMENT

EPL
League 1
Champions League
Serie A
Serie B
Greece Super League
Bundesliga
Bundesliga 2

2017-2018

26.10%
27.10%
29.90%
29.90%
35%
30.30%
26.90%
29.30%

2018-2019

18.70%
26.60%
27.40%
28.40%
32.50%
23.30%
24.40%
28.60%

2019-2020

24.20%
28.10%
24.40%
23.20%
27.30%
29.20%
23%
31.80%

How to Predict Draws (A Mathematical Approach)

Bookies use mathematical models to predict the likelihood of any possible outcome in order to calculate their odds. It includes draws, wins, losses, and specific scores. Poisson distribution and Normal Distribution are two of the most common models.

• Poisson Distribution

Poisson distribution in betting is used to calculate the frequency of any occurrence in a game. It is a method that uses probability theory to predict how likely an event is. You can use it to calculate the likelihood of a specific score in football.

When bookies set their odds, it is important to know how likely any event is, based on past performance. Bookies do not simply come up with odds out of the blue. They use mathematical models. If you want to take a scientific, mathematical approach to betting, you should calculate for yourself how likely you think a specific game event, or set of events will be. That is the first step to finding value. If you have found something that is more likely to happen than what the bookies predict, that is what value is.

Poisson distribution in betting is particularly relevant for games like football, where scoring happens on an incremental scale. It helps you determine the likelihood of each possible score.

• Normal Distribution

It is a statistical model based on averages as well as how often they occur. Two teams may have the same average score, however, one team can be very consistent, while one team overperforms and underperforms frequently. By calculating the standard deviation, you can see how often, and by how much results differ from the mean. This will possibly give you a more value result.